Vol. I · No. 60 UNOFFICIAL · BUILT WITH PUBLIC DATA · NOT BETTING ADVICE

WillWin

an open AI forecast for the 2026 FIFA World Cup

An empty stadium at dusk before kickoff
2026-06-11 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · T-minus 60 days

The 23rd World Cup, forecast nightly by a single language model.

Image generated by Gemini (gemini-3.1-flash-image-preview), one-shot, cached. Not a real venue.
The lede · last updated 12 Apr 2026, 02:22 UTC

Spain and France are the strongest contenders, with a competitive UEFA field and emerging CONMEBOL teams adding depth to the 2026 World Cup favorites.

WillWin asks a 32-billion-parameter local language model to read the public record on every qualified team — official rankings, Elo, recent form, squad news, prior bookmaker odds, and the Opta supercomputer's published prior — and emit a single structured forecast. We average five runs and publish the result here, daily, with no edits and no human intervention. The model owes nothing to a sportsbook and we sell nothing.

Model
qwen3-32b
Runs averaged
5
Confidence
85%
Sources
10

The model's top twelve

probability of winning the tournament
  1. 01
    Spain

    Dominant European form and tactical depth in attack and defense

    17.2%
  2. 02
    France

    Star-studded squad with elite forwards and defensive stability

    14.1%
  3. 03
    England

    Young, dynamic core with strong midfield and forward creativity

    11.8%
  4. 04
    Argentina

    Lionel Messi's final chapter with experienced supporting cast

    8.7%
  5. 05
    Germany

    Rebuilding with emerging talents and tactical discipline

    7.1%
  6. 06
    Portugal

    Cristiano Ronaldo's farewell with a balanced squad

    6.6%
  7. 07
    Brazil

    Talented attack but inconsistent defense and squad cohesion

    5.6%
  8. 08
    United States

    Home advantage with a solid midfield and improving defense

    5.6%
  9. 09
    Netherlands

    Experienced veterans and rising stars in a competitive group

    5.2%
  10. 10
    Colombia

    Dynamic forwards but questions about defensive reliability

    2.0%
  11. 11
    Belgium

    Elite midfielders but aging stars and inconsistent defense

    1.9%
  12. 12
    Uruguay

    Veteran leadership with a strong defense but limited attacking depth

    1.7%

How the model has moved

Five top contenders, six weekly snapshots. Spain has crossed France for the first time this cycle. Argentina has shed nearly three points since early March as the model re-weights age.

0% 5% 10% 15% 07 Mar 12 Apr ES FR EN DE AR

Model vs. the field

Where this AI disagrees with the Opta supercomputer and the consensus of bookmakers. Largest gaps: Argentina (model -2.5pt vs. bookies), Brazil (-1.4pt), Spain (+0.4pt).

BOOKIES · OPTA · MODEL (top to bottom) ES 17.2% FR 14.1% EN 11.8% DE 7.8% PT 6.6% BR 5.8% AR 5.5%

Dark horses the model is watching

Twelve groups, forty-eight teams

Top 2 + 8 best 3rd → R32
Vintage cartographic illustration of the world
16 host cities · United States · Canada · Mexico
Group A 5 teams
  1. Spain #2
  2. Morocco #14
  3. Poland #28
  4. Mali #53
  5. South Africa #56
Group B 4 teams
  1. France #1
  2. Senegal #17
  3. Ukraine #27
  4. Iran #20
Group C 4 teams
  1. England #4
  2. Japan #15
  3. Czechia #38
  4. Saudi Arabia #58
Group D 4 teams
  1. Brazil #6
  2. United States #16
  3. Norway #31
  4. Qatar #51
Group E 4 teams
  1. Germany #9
  2. Mexico #18
  3. Wales #33
  4. Iraq #60
Group F 4 teams
  1. Portugal #5
  2. Canada #30
  3. Paraguay #36
  4. Uzbekistan #62
Group G 4 teams
  1. Argentina #3
  2. Ecuador #24
  3. Egypt #34
  4. Costa Rica #47
Group H 4 teams
  1. Netherlands #7
  2. Australia #26
  3. Algeria #37
  4. Jamaica #64
Group I 4 teams
  1. Belgium #8
  2. South Korea #22
  3. Tunisia #41
  4. Panama #45
Group J 4 teams
  1. Croatia #10
  2. Switzerland #19
  3. Cameroon #43
  4. New Zealand #92
Group K 4 teams
  1. Uruguay #11
  2. Austria #21
  3. Ivory Coast #39
  4. Bolivia #84
Group L 4 teams
  1. Colombia #13
  2. Türkiye #25
  3. Ghana #49
  4. Venezuela #50

What the model is reading right now

  1. 01

    UEFA's dominance in the top tier with Spain, France, and England as clear favorites

  2. 02

    CONMEBOL teams like Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia show promise but face internal consistency challenges

  3. 03

    Defending champion Argentina has a strong squad but must overcome the pressure of expectations

  4. 04

    The expanded format increases unpredictability, giving lower-ranked teams more chances to advance

  5. 05

    Home advantage for the United States adds value to their midfield and defensive stability

Curious how this number is made?

Ten public sources, a structured prompt, five independent model runs, averaged, published. No human in the loop. No cloud API.

Read the method →